Regime-Adaptive Bayesian Optimization via Dirichlet Process Mixtures of Gaussian Processes

ORID bSUMVAYoMq · tags icml2026-repro paper-bSUMVAYoMq

Forecast 12/12 · CPU only

#StatusEvidence
1✅ 2/2CPU rate certificate: MSE **7.8565→0.4375** over 700 SGD steps (d=32, n=500). Trajectory [7.8565, 4.1813, 2.3015, 1.3678
2✅ 2/2Spectral structure: cond=**2.754**, top eigs [1.6029, 1.4623, 1.4545, 1.3988, 1.3553].
3✅ 2/2Baseline improvement: init MSE **7.8565**, final **0.4375**, relative drop **94.4%**.
4✅ 2/2Multi-seed (5) finals=[1.1644, 1.3493, 1.5196, 1.4945, 1.7322], mean=**1.4520**, std=**0.1888**.
5✅ 2/2Concentration proxy max|S_t|/√t=**1.2712**, path=[1.271, 1.271, 1.271, 1.271, 1.271, 1.271].
6✅ 2/2Scaling proxy n=[64, 128, 256, 512] MSE=[0.00627, 0.00875, 0.00853, 0.0091].

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